America stopped believing in the success of the oil war against Russia

MOSCOW, September 14 — PRIME, Oleg Krivoshapov. The United States predicted the failure of attempts to limit the cost of Russian volumes, since this does not meet either market realities or the aspirations of most powers. The main contradiction is that the West wants to buy oil and gas on the cheap in order to save money and not incur new debts, while exporters, on the contrary, find it profitable to sell goods at a reasonable price.

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Attempts by the “collective West” to limit the cost of Russian oil on world markets are meaningless and will be virtually fruitless, Gary Korolev, financial analyst at the American consulting company Sovereign Wealth Management, said in an interview with RIA Novosti. The reason is the many exceptions, gaps, lack of enforcement in market realities and the need for Western countries to support their economies.

The expert suggested that the document agreed in June by the G7 countries will gradually lose relevance, and its true goal is purely political, “a show of force.” He specifically pointed to the reluctance of China and India to follow in line with the sanctions strategy outlined by Western politicians.

However, the G7 countries have so far only indicated their intention to reduce their dependence on energy carriers from Russia, but have not agreed on specific marginal quotations. At the same time, it is assumed that the restriction on oil prices will come into force on December 5 of the current year, for oil products – on February 5, 2023.

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In turn, Russian President Vladimir Putin, commenting on this idea, directly stated that Russia would not supply energy resources to countries that would support the mentioned measures.


Such an assessment of the situation by the Western expert community is rare today. As a rule, they speak in the spirit of a single anti-Russian rhetoric. However, true professionals (and not journalists, politicians and those close to them) refrain from commenting at all.

This, in turn, is noted by Russian experts. For example, Leonid Grigoriev, Professor at the Department of World Economy at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, points to the “death” silence of the professional community of the “collective West” regarding the real situation in the world energy markets. According to his observations, since last summer there have been no comments from economists and power engineers in the Western media that would give a qualified assessment of what is happening. “All that you see is the comments of politicians and journalists, well, and people equated to them with political engagement. And the professional community has become silent,” the expert complains. “What the Finance and Foreign Ministries come up with has practically nothing to do with the real economy.”

However, according to Grigoriev, “if you collect a hundred teams of professors and students from all universities in the world, they will write the same thing – which is absurd, and cannot be, and contradicts all textbooks.” He is perplexed how to explain to students in the current conditions why restrictions are being introduced in the world in the markets that we are seeing now. “What does this mean at the level of development theory?” the professor asks. “Don’t deliver it here.” And now they’ve come up with “Goskomtseny”. That is, in practice, the European Commission is trying to create a system of “gosplan” institutions, including price ones.”


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The further fate of price restrictions on Russian oil depends on the position of the countries with which the G7 had not previously considered much – these are the states of Asia and the Middle East. If the West needs cheap energy resources, then exporters tend to sell them not at bargain prices “Arab oilmen are interested in maintaining high prices for their goods, while the leading consumers, united in the G7, dream of reducing the cost of raw materials for motor fuel, the price of which is already has become a serious political factor,” said Dmitry Koptev, head of the media center at the Institute for the Development of Technologies in the Fuel and Energy Complex (IrtTEK).

Of course, nothing is fixed in politics, and Saudi Arabia could theoretically be made an offer that cannot be refused, he admits. “But we must not forget that it was the agreement between the United States and the Saudis in the 80s of the last century that marked the beginning of a long period of lower oil prices,” he recalls.

On the other hand, China and Saudi Arabia intend to develop strategic cooperation without regard to US interests. “At the end of July, the Shanghai Center for Green Finance and Development reported that in the first half of 2022, Saudi Arabia received $5.5 billion as part of the One Belt, One Road project, becoming the undisputed leader in terms of attracted investments,” Koptev said. Earlier it was reported that Saudi Arabia is considering the possibility of paying for oil exported to China in yuan, and to India – in rupees.

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Vasily Koltashov, head of the Center for Political and Economic Research at the New Society Institute, notes that the position of oil and gas exporting countries should now be understood as follows: even if Western economies (the EU, Great Britain, the USA) “fail” and have a regularly declining GDP, the main thing is not to increase prey. The OPEC+ deal is just aimed at containing it. And Russia and Saudi Arabia should try not to quarrel in this situation, he clarifies.

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If there are problems in Western economies, production should be adjusted – to reduce it, so as not to repeat the situation in the spring of 2020, the expert is convinced. “It was a terrible collapse in the oil market, which was preceded by a competitive struggle between Russia and Saudi Arabia,” recalls Koltashov. That situation, he believes, has taught all OPEC + members that they do not need competition among themselves. On the contrary, it is necessary to cooperate and create monopoly agreements that will keep prices high for Western countries, despite their problems with the budget and debts. After all, Western politicians think about the problems of the “third world” least of all, trying to save their economies and stay in power.

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