Bitcoin course analysis: a four-day tour of the fields

Every week we write multiple course analyzes and these are compiled and written by two top toppers. Those toppers are now sleeping their head off, because the Nijmegen Four Days Marches are this week.

Contents hide

1 Bitcoin is dominant

2 What are we looking at in the short term?

3 Looking back at a year full of alts and bitcoin, the long term

4 Related posts:

That is why we are doing a tour of the fields today. We look at technical analyzes of international analysts, we explain and share our vision of their analyzes.

The focus today is on the dominance of bitcoin on the entire cryptomarket and what that can mean for altseason (is now starting to look like a meme). We also zoom in on the volatility of the short term and place it in the perspective of the long term. Don’t feel like reading? Axel is happy to explain it to you.

Bitcoin is dominant

Last weekend the price of bitcoin plummeted within a few hours, but since yesterday the price has recovered. In the last 24 hours there has even been a growth of 6 percent. And if bitcoin moves, the altcoins follow, right?

That is also possible with a dominance of almost 70 percent. The total market value of all cryptocurrency combined therefore consists of 70 percent bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s footprint has never been this large since December 2017. In July 2017, the market dominance of BTC was even 77.5 percent. And before that? At that time, the altcoin market was not yet so mature and the supply was scanty.

Read This Now: analysis of the causes of the collapse of Bitcoin prices

Analyst Luke Martin says that this high dominance is actually the norm, and no exception. Bitcoin always owned 90 percent of the crypto market, until the rise of Ethereum changed that in March 2017.

$ BTC dominance less than 50-60% is rare when comparing to historical average ~ 80%.
I expect windows to keep happening, but it’s important to note $ BTC making up a larger share of crypto market is the norm – not the outlier.
Alts make a great trade when the macro trend is up. https://t.co/ixUmWNm3gw
– Luke Martin (@VentureCoinist) July 15, 2019

After last weekend’s packing time, the value of the total cryptomarket increased by 13 billion, but this is mainly due to bitcoin. Most altcoins have not been properly restored except for the BCH and BSV. Both have grown by around 10 percent.

What are we looking at in the short term?

$ BTC Update
Current levels that I’m watching on the chart
Explain it in more detail at https://t.co/6DgXwzJSVt pic.twitter.com/zNQYmkfWR1
– Josh Rager ? (@Josh_Rager) July 15, 2019

Josh Rager maintains a few important support and resistance zones. He tweeted the graph above yesterday. In his positive scenario, the rate is fighting today and tomorrow to break the $ 10,760 resistance. It appears that the hurdle has since been taken. The value of bitcoin is now at X price…

But the support lines are more interesting. If bitcoin falls back to $ 9,500 then there is no strong support. He calls the weekly support weak and that is not easy. That line has only been tested twice.

CryptoDonAlt actually says the same below but is slightly more negative. Everything above that zone around $ 10,800 is bull land and everything below bear land. When we enter bear land, we quickly head towards $ 9,500. According to Josh Rager, we then make a free fall. That’s why CryptoDonAlt says he prefers going short.

$ BTC daily update:
Right at daily resistance.
If BTC wants to close back above it – I expect a relief rally.
If it doesn’t, I expect a quick move to $ 9500 at least.
I prefer shorting over longing at resistance, even more so when the market structure has broken bearishly. pic.twitter.com/qxFcL7xGdw
– DonAlt (@CryptoDonAlt) July 15, 2019

Looking back at a year full of alts and bitcoin, the long term

Captain Hindsight! Afterwards it is always easy to talk so we will do the same here. Ceteris Paribus compares buying altcoins in the top ten with buying bitcoin.

Buying alts in the top 10 a year ago, how has it fared?
On average, you would have turned 1 $ BTC into 0.36 $ BTC. In dollar terms: $ 6,360 into $ 3,702.
If you hero $ BTC, you would be up 62%. pic.twitter.com/yZvSwNRIOW
– Ceteris Paribus (@ ceterispar1bus) July 15, 2019

Would you have bought alts worth 1 bitcoin a year ago? Then there is only 0.36 bitcoin from now on. That is because the value of bitcoin has grown so exponentially. But did you only buy bitcoin? Then the value in euros and dollars has increased by 62 percent.

$ BTC is above 10k and everyone here is acting like it’s worth 10 dollars and a half eaten happy meal. A few weeks ago 10k was a dream. We are about 3x from the bottom. Have some perspective.
– The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker) July 15, 2019

If you look at the price in the short term, never lose sight of the long term. Even though that long term is only a few months long. We conclude with the wise words of The Wolf of All Streets above. He substantiates his words with two successive tweets about the past week and from the beginning.

Read This Now: The geopolitical consequences of stablecoins such as Libra and Tether

In the first graph you can see that the price of bitcoin rises parabolic in the blue box. And the little red box causes some commotion last week. Are you zooming out to the full period? Then the last 8 years look like one big bull market.

$ BTC Perspective Edition Part 2
This is a weekly bitcoin chart, representing the entire trading history on Bitstamp (2011). Does this look bad to you? Zoom out and calm down. Nothing that happens today (or this month) should matter. This is a bull market. pic.twitter.com/zwiBDYNTO1
– The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker) July 15, 2019