Bitcoin price analysis: will the value of the new gold be 36,000 euros this year?

Bitcoin price analysis will the value of the new gold be 36,000 euros this year

Is bitcoin the new gold? That is the discussion that has been going on for some time on the internet. And that is actually not surprising. Bitcoin is often seen as the digital gold, a new way to retain value.

Just as with gold, bitcoin may also accept an ETF in the future. In addition, parties such as Bakkt and Fidelity also pave the way for institutional parties. Fidelity focuses on Over The Counter (OTC) deals, and Bakkt offers secure bitcoin storage for companies and institutional parties.

In this price analysis we therefore address the following questions:

  • Does the bitcoin course follow the same path as gold?
  • What caused the price rise yesterday?
  • And what can we expect from the bitcoin rate in the short term?

Bitcoin price is very similar to the price of gold

In the graph below we compare bitcoin (green and red) with gold (blue). Is bitcoin going to rise considerably like gold?

What is immediately noticeable is that bitcoin makes almost the same price movements as gold. But with an important difference. The bitcoin rate moves much faster than the gold rate. On the bitcoin chart, each candle represents one day. The gold graph represents a longer period, each candle represents a week. The blue line therefore shows the course from 1979 to the present.

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Gold ETF coincides with positive bitcoin reporting

The price of gold makes a big leap up when the first gold ETF comes on the market. And that is later than you initially think, only on March 28, 2003. After the first gold ETF, the price of gold was accelerated.

This period on the graph corresponds to the period between May and June 2019 at bitcoin (the orange dots on the graph). At that time there was a lot of positive reporting about bitcoin. Think of Fidelity and Bakkt, but also Microsoft that makes its own tool on the bitcoin blockchain.

Will bitcoin follow the same movement as gold in the future? Then we are just at the beginning of this bull market.

Bitcoin has the potential to reach the highest value ever this year. That point now stands at 16,727.68 euros, which you can see on our price page. According to the graph, bitcoin could still pass this limit in August 2019.

And coincidence or not, that just coincides with the deadline for the bitcoin ETF from VanEck / SolidX. That is namely on August 19.

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And if bitcoin continues to follow the price of gold afterwards? Then before November 2019, bitcoin will be worth more than 36,000 euros. We wait and see!

Bitcoin course breaks out

Back to the short term. What caused the price rise yesterday? We zoom in on the hour level.

A bullish pennant caused yesterday’s outbreak. That means that the price is moving in a rising trend, between two increasingly narrow trend lines. The tops are getting lower and the bottoms getting higher.

The moment the two lines almost come together, an outbreak often follows. And that is what happened on Monday morning at 10:00. The price of bitcoin rose by almost 500 euros in just one hour. This morning, almost a value of 11,470 euros was achieved!

What can we expect from the bitcoin rate?

It sounds like a cliché, but again it is very exciting for bitcoin. The course is now at a crossroads.

At this moment the value of bitcoin seems to find resistance (yellow rectangle). This resistance is in an important area.

You can see that on the graph below. At the end of 2017 this zone was just a support. Two weeks ago and now it looks like a resistance:

 bitcoin going to break this resistance or not

Is bitcoin going to break this resistance or not? We determine our scenarios based on this:

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The resistance is broken (bullish)
If the bitcoin succeeds in continuing to rise, we expect the exchange rate to rise between 13,500 euros and 14,100 euros. This zone was also an important resistance in early December 2017 and early January 2018.

The resistance is not broken (bearish)
But does the bitcoin rate fall again? Then it is possible that the price will again find support between 8,500 euros and 9,000 euros. This was the zone that last looked up the bitcoin price during a fall. Does this zone provide support again? Then this is a strong zone, and the chance is smaller that bitcoin will fall below this level.

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