Bloomberg reports that on the American stock market LedgerX (not to be confused with the hardware wallets) you can bet on $ 100,000 in December 2020. LedgerX recently received a license from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to offer derivatives.
So you can bet on a bitcoin rate of no less than $ 100,000. This is only paid out if the value of bitcoin is $ 100,000 or more in December 2020.
I don’t even blink for 100,000 dollars
According to Paul Chou, the chief executive of startup LedgerX, there is demand for this product from wealthy, institutional customers. These parties all manage assets between 10 million and 1 billion dollars.
Chou says about this:
“I understand that $ 100,000 is a large sum, but many of us who have been involved with crypto for a long time still remember that bitcoin was once $ 1, then $ 10, and then $ 100 to also add 10,000 to tap the dollar. I don’t even blink for a $ 100,000 contract. “
Contracts with real bitcoin
LedgerX has therefore received permission from the CFTC. What this actually means is that the company may offer futures, which are settled with real bitcoin. That is different from the futures that CME offers, they only offer paper contracts and therefore do not withhold a real BTC.
In conversation with CoinDesk, chief operating officer Juthica Chou (and also faithful to Paul Chou) says that LedgerX does not have an exact timeline, but that they are looking for collaboration with a large, established party. She adds that LedgerX intends to “serve customers of all sizes,” something that direct competitor Bakkt does not want for the time being.
Is $ 100,000 realistic?
That is a very important question to ask, especially if bitcoin has surrendered more than 20 percent in the last two days. Search long enough and you’ll find a few race optimists.
The ever-optimistic Anthony Pompliano, analyst and co-founder of Morgan Creek Digital Assets, recently predicted that bitcoin would be worth $ 100,000, albeit in 2021.
According to a model from analyst PlanB, the possibility is certain. PlanB substantiates this with a model based on the idea of the stock-to-flow ratio.
The stock is the value of a good, usually a commodity, the flow is the growth of the supply of that good in a certain year. These two sums can be combined to form a ratio, which defines scarcity by how much inflation a good sees (the higher, the scarcer).
According to an analysis by PlanB, the value of raw materials such as gold and silver can be plotted and therefore predicted by a stock-to-flow valuation model.
This is becoming scary: using Oct instead of Dec data, Stock-to-Flow model fit improves to 99.5% R2! Model error was mainly caused by Nov2013 and Dec2017 ATH, so sampling without ATH gives less noise. Predicted #bitcoin prices increase: $ 100K (2020+), $ 1M (2024+), $ 10M (2028+) … pic.twitter.com/1WX6LOVxZW
– Plan₿ (@ 100trillionUSD) July 14, 2019
If bitcoin follows the above model closely, then BTC is worth at least $ 100,000 by the end of 2020. In May 2020, the block reward is halving by the way. When the reward for miners halves, the SF ratio doubles.
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