Investors rely on positive court decision

  • Rate (XRP): $0.49 (previous week: $0.35)
  • Resistances/goals: 0,51 USD, 0,56 USD, 0,64 USD, 0,71 USD, 0,75/0,78 USD, 0,90 USD, 0,95 USD, 1,00 USD
  • Supports: 0,47 USD, 0,41/0,39 USD, 0,36 USD, 0,32 USD, 0,29 USD, 0,26/0,24 USD, 0,21 USD, 0,17 USD
Course analysis based on the pair of values XRP/USD on Bitfinex

Ripple (XRP) Recap

  • The price of Ripple (XRP) has escaped the downward trend in the crypto market in the last few trading days and has peaked 62 percent north since the beginning of the week.
  • The breakout of the multi-month trading range on Tuesday, September 20th, caused the price to jump by 41 percent in the last three trading days to a new multi-month high of USD 0.56.
  • Starting from the yearly low of USD 0.29, the XRP price gained around 95 percentage points in value.
  • One reason for the price explosion since the start of the week can be seen in the possibly timely pronouncement of judgment in the Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) process against Ripple. The SEC’s lawsuit against Ripple has been going on for almost 2 years now.
  • Recently there had been efforts by both parties to speed up the pronouncement of the verdict.
  • Investors as well as process observers assume that this trend-setting judgment should have a bullish effect on the XRP price and subsequently also on the entire crypto sector if a decision is made in favor of Ripple.
  • As a result of these expectations on the part of investors, the XRP price was initially able to break out of the range of the last few months with a significant increase in trading volume.

A look at the price development of the last week

  • The recapture of resistance at $0.39 drew more investors into Ripple. The significant purchases by investors caused a massive jump in price above the cross resistance of the 23 Fibonacci retracement and EMA200 (blue) in the USD 0.46 area.
  • On Friday morning, the XRP price then rose to the resistance at USD 0.56 before significant profit-taking caused Ripple to return to currently USD 0.48.
  • Bullish investors could now try to use the EMA200 retest for purchases. However, a retest of the breakout level between USD 0.39 and USD 0.41 should not come as a surprise. The bulls are again expected to show increased interest here.
  • However, only when the XRP price can sustainably break out of the cross resistance from the blue resistance area and the red overriding downtrend line does the chart brighten in favor of the buyer side.
  • Looking at the technical indicators, the RSI at 75 on the daily chart indicates an overbought condition. In the weekly chart, the MACD indicator has already generated a buy signal and the RSI is also back in the neutral zone between 45 and 55. A recapture of the 55 should generate additional buying momentum here.
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Bullishe Variante (Ripple)

  • The rise in prices over the past few days is quite remarkable given the weak price development on the global financial markets.
  • As long as the bulls manage to stabilize the XRP price above the EMA200 in the area of ​​USD 0.46, a new attempt at an increase can be planned.
  • In order to develop new upward momentum, Ripple must first stabilize above this support.
  • If the XRP rate can rise back above USD 0.51 in the direction of USD 0.56 in a timely manner, a directional decision can be expected.
  • If the bulls can generate enough purchasing power and dynamically overcome the strong resistance at USD 0.57, a march through USD 0.60 (38 Fibonacci retracement) towards USD 0.64 should be planned.

A first ray of light on the horizon

  • If the bulls can subsequently maneuver the price of Ripple above this price level, a march through to around USD 0.70 is likely.
  • If Ripple manages to hold its own here without strong sell-offs, a movement towards the green travel zone between USD 0.75 and USD 0.78 can be expected in the medium term.
  • The first investors should realize profits here. If the bulls manage to break through this massive resistance area in the coming weeks, the chart picture will continue to brighten.
  • Then the highs from the beginning of the year at USD 0.90 come back into the focus of investors.
  • From the current chart perspective, however, a rapid price increase back above this massive horizontal resistance level is not to be expected.
  • However, if the overall market also strengthens and moves north again, the XRP price could prospectively rise in the direction of the golden pocket of the complete downward movement between USD 0.94 and USD 1.00. The chart image for the bull camp still does not give more.
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Bearishe Variante (Ripple)

  • For a long time, the bears were able to cap the price of Ripple in the USD 0.39 area.
  • The dynamic breakout earlier in the week left the bears behind in the short term. The massive short liquidations of over $28 million in the last 24 hours of trading speak for themselves.
  • The seller side must now do everything in their power to cap Ripple in the USD 0.57 area. In the event of a successful SEC lawsuit against Ripple, this seems largely certain.
  • In order to sell the price back into the red box, the USD 0.46 must first be broken down. Another dip back below the EMA200 increases the likelihood of a false breakout in XRP price.
  • If the price then corrects back in the direction of the breakout zone between USD 0.41 and USD 0.39, a directional decision can be planned.

A bearish false breakout is imminent

  • If the bulls do not succeed in stabilizing the XRP price here and starting a new upward movement, Ripple should fall below USD 0.39 directly to the EMA50 (orange) at USD 0.36.
  • At this multiple support from the moving average line of the last 50 trading days, as well as the super trend in the daily chart, the buyer side has to show their colors.
  • If the bears manage to sustainably break through this support as well, the bullish false breakout is finally sealed and Ripple will immediately fall back to its monthly low from September at USD 0.32.
  • However, if this support is also abandoned in the course of renewed overall market weakness, the year’s low of USD 0.29 will come into focus again.
  • If this support is also permanently abandoned, the sell-off will expand to between USD 0.26 and USD 0.24.
  • In the first attempt, however, a direct fall below the green support zone is not to be expected. Already in January 2021, this zone acted as a solid support.
  • However, if Bitcoin (BTC) also corrects towards new yearly lows, Ripple could also fall back to around USD 0.21
  • This support level could again be used by the bulls as an entry level.
  • The maximum bearish price target for Ripple can be seen at USD 0.17. In July and December 2020, this price level was already acting as strong support.
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Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not represent buy or sell recommendations. They are merely an assessment by the analyst.

The chart images were created using TradingView created.

USD/EUR exchange rate at the time of going to press: EUR 1.02.

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