Sunday Long Read: November is the Best month for bitcoin, January the Worst on Average

Sunday Long Read November is the Best month for bitcoin, January the Worst on Average

Bitdealer has examined data from 2012 to see which month is best for bitcoin. His conclusion is that November is on average the best month, while January is the bad one for the bitcoin rate.

Ever wondered how $ BTC performs during a certain months? Here is the historical monthly performance since 2012.

Lowest returning month: Jan. at -0.18% on average with 3 green & 5 red months.

Highest returning month: Nov. at 75.58% on average with 6 green & 1 red month.

– DeitDealer (@Bitdealer_) July 25, 2019

Click here for a larger version of the overview above.

Average return in January the lowest

With five negative recurring and three positive recurring months since 2012, the average return on bitcoin in January is -0.18 percent. The only month of the year that is on average loss-making.

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The remaining eleven months of the year all book green figures on average in terms of returns. All these months have, on average, turned positive figures. Bitcoin is still on the rise in that regard.

Yet March is usually not a winner

While January is the worst performing month on the basis of average returns, March has more red courses than the other eleven months. March only closes in green figures in 2013 and this year. In that respect, March benefits greatly from 2013 and is disrupting the overall trend this year. In March 2013, the value of bitcoin rose from $ 33.53 to $ 96.15. A profit of over 186 percent. Only November 2013 performed better with a whopping 459.26 percent.

November is the best performing month

Apart from a dramatic fall of 37.01 percent in November 2018, November has had positive figures every year since 2012. November is by far the best performing month with an average value increase of no less than 75.58 percent!

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Seasonal price promotion

Although it sometimes seems that bitcoin has absolutely nothing to do with the stock market, both have some similarities. The stock market has seasonal trends and that seems to be forming at bitcoin. By seasonal trends we mean the ability to predict price fluctuations based on the period of the year.

The “January effect” is a well-known phenomenon on the stock market. In the first month of the year, shares tend to recover and therefore show green numbers. Bitcoin again has a reverse January effect. Now the impression is created that the market capitalization (value all bitcoin) and the daily trading volume actually have a negative correlation with the stock market.

But yes, with less than a decade of data, that is perhaps a conclusion that is drawn a little too early.

Before 2012 there were not really serious stock exchanges on which you could trade safely. Because safety was simply not in order at the time, the price also fluctuated very strongly. The most notorious example is the flash crash on June 19, 2011. Then the value of bitcoin plummeted from $ 32 to $ 1 cent on Mt Gox, the most famous exchange at that time.

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