Does Vasil ensure a sustainable trend reversal?

• Rate (ADA): $0.49 (previous week: $0.45)
• Resistances/goals: 0,50 USD, 0,53 USD, 0,60 USD, 0,64 USD, 0,68/0,70 USD, 0,75 USD, 0,92/0,95 USD, 1,00 USD, 1,04 USD, 1,10 USD, 1,19 USD, 1,25 USD, 1,43 USD, 1,59 USD, 1,76/1,82 USD, 1,96 USD, 2,07 USD
• Supports: 0,46 USD, 0,43 USD, 0,39 USD, 0,33 USD, 0,26 USD, 0,19 USD

Price analysis based on the value pair ADA/USD on Bittrex

Cardano Recap:

• The Cardano community breathes a sigh of relief. After several postponements, a final date for the Vasil hard fork on the ADA blockchain has now been officially announced as September 22nd.
• The next long-awaited change to one of the major crypto ecosystems follows just about a week after the planned completion of “The Merge” on the Ethereum blockchain.
• According to Rick McCracken DIGI, a staking pool operator in the Cardano community, the rising is positive Performance of the Cardano network. The synchronization in the network is currently at an average of 99.77 percent for the more than 400 nodes. McCracken had recently found an average of 97 percent to a maximum of 99 percent.

What does the chart say?

• The ADA price has been able to recover after falling again to around USD 0.43 in the last seven trading days and is currently trying to stabilize above the EMA50 (orange).
• Cardano then needs to clear the resistance at $0.50 to generate further upside potential towards $0.53.
• Only when the ADA price can climb back above the previous month’s high of USD 0.60 in the coming days and thus overcome the 23 Fibonacci retracement of the current recovery movement will the highs from June 2022 in the turquoise resistance zone move in $0.64 in focus again.

directional decision to be expected

• A decision on the price development in the coming weeks should be made in the area of ​​USD 0.68 at the latest. In addition to the high from May 2022, the sliding resistance line EMA200 (blue) also runs here.
• On the downside, ADA price seems well supported around last week’s lows at $0.42. As long as Cardano does not form a new annual low, the bullish version is still preferable.
• Similar to Ethereum, investors should expect Cardano to rise in anticipation of Vasil.
• Looking at the indicators, the RSI as well as the MACD indicator activated fresh buy-signals in the daily chart. A bullish divergence also supports the ADA course.

Bullish scenario (Cardano):

• In anticipation of the Vasil update, the ADA course can recently break away from its lows of the previous week. However, in the last three days, Cardano failed to clear the resistance at USD 0.50. The course is currently threatening to head south again.
• If the ADA course gives up the EMA50 at the end of the day, the bulls must do everything possible to stabilize Cardano at USD 0.46 at the latest in order not to endanger the recovery of the last trading week.
• If the bulls manage to break out of last Sunday’s high, the price will initially rise towards USD 0.53.
• A recapture of this resistance makes a march through to the history high in the area of ​​USD 0.60 increasingly likely.
• If Cardano does not fail here again and subsequently stabilizes above the 23 Fibonacci retracement, the bulls should directly target the turquoise upper edge of the sideways range at USD 0.64.

Trading volume will tip the scales

• In order to initiate a successful breakout, the trading volume must necessarily increase.
• Then a directional decision in the yellow resist zone between USD 0.68 and USD 0.70 is likely. In addition to the highs from May of this year, the EMA200 also has a price-limiting effect here.
• If the bulls manage to recapture this zone as well, a subsequent increase up to USD 0.75 can be planned. This resistance level, also known as the demarcation line, should be seen as the first medium-term hurdle on the way back towards USD 1.00.

Still eyeing $1.00 mark

• If the buyer side succeeds in pulverizing the resist up to the Vasil hard fork, Cardano should quickly jump towards USD 0.92. If the ADA price does not return southwards for a sustained period either, the focus will shift to the golden pocket of the current trend movement between USD 0.92 and USD 0.95 as a target area.

• Here again increased resistance from the bear camp is to be expected.
• Only when the USD 0.95 is dynamically recaptured will the price recovery expand in the direction of the psychological USD 1.00 mark. The overall 23 Fibonacci retracement of the complete downward movement runs just above this at USD 1.04. From a technical point of view, this price level represents the minimum target of the current recovery movement.

Recapturing the $1.00 as the first distance target

• If Cardano can subsequently get stuck above USD 1.00, an increase to the horizontal resist at USD 1.10 can be expected.
• If the ADA price then also sustainably overcomes this resistance, a further price jump into the zone between USD 1.19 and USD 1.25 is to be planned. This is where Cardano has failed every time this trading year. For the time being, this zone is to be regarded as the maximum increase target for the coming trading weeks.
• Only when the classic financial market can also recover more sustainably and thus also pulls the crypto market north with it, will the bulls do everything possible to dynamically break through the upper edge of the red resistance area.
• If the breakout succeeds, the upward movement will immediately expand to USD 1.43. In addition to strong horizontal resistance, the higher-level 38 Fibonacci retracement also runs in this price mark.

Plan for further upside potential

• If the ADA price then also overcomes this resistance level, a renewed trend acceleration into the resist zone between USD 1.52 and USD 1.59 is conceivable. The high for the year so far can also be found here. Investors will therefore increasingly want to realize profits.
• Should the buyer side succeed in pulverizing this strong resistance area as well, investors will focus on the next target zone between USD 1.76 and USD 1.82.
• However, it is difficult to predict at this point whether the buyer side will succeed in attacking the maximum overarching price target for the coming trading months. The price target in the form of the golden pocket of the entire down move is found between $2.07 and $2.15.

Bearishe Szenario (Cardano):

• The bears still don’t give up. Although the seller side missed a march back to the low for the year at USD 0.40, they are currently trying to cap the ADA rate at USD 0.50 again.
• Furthermore, the ADA price must first sustainably break through the yellow resistance zone in order to teach the bears a lesson.
• As long as Cardano cannot break out of the sideways range of the last few months, a new sell-off can be planned at any time.
• If the ADA price slips below USD 0.46 again in a timely manner and then falls back below the previous week’s low of USD 0.43, the annual low of USD 0.40 will come back into the eyes of investors.
• If the trading volume also remains low, the bears will do everything possible to generate a new low for the year.

New annual lows must be planned for

• This would immediately activate the lower edge of the green support zone at USD 0.33 as a target area.
• If the bulls give up this support level as well, the correction extends directly towards USD 0.26.
• If the ADA price does not turn northwards in the long term either, a fall back to the area between USD 0.17 and USD 0.19 cannot be ruled out in the medium term.
• However, as long as the area around the annual low is not undercut by the daily closing price, investors can use short-term setbacks for new entries. However, a stop loss below the previous low for the year must be set.

Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not represent buy or sell recommendations. They are merely an assessment by the analyst.

The chart images were created using TradingView created.

USD/EUR exchange rate at the time of going to press: EUR 1.00.