Price back to $ 10,000? Or in the direction of $ 14,000?

Exciting times for bitcoin! Yesterday bitcoin was just 12,000 dollars (10,600 euros)
worth, now the value of bitcoin fluctuates around $ 10,800 (9,600 euros). It really seems to be going in all directions. Can we expect a correction? Or is the rate going up?

Negative divergence, bitcoin again from rising trend

The bitcoin rate recovered from Tuesday 2 July, as the value rose: from 8,500 euros to 10,600 euros!

Bitcoin has been in a rising trend line in recent days. This is drawn in green on the graph. On Thursday evening 22:00 the bitcoin rate fell due to this trend line. Negative divergence can play a role in this.

Negative divergence means that the price makes higher peaks, but that an indicator shows lower peaks. You can see that on the graph below.

The top graph shows the price of bitcoin. You can see that the price makes higher peaks. The bottom graph shows the RSI, the Relative Strength Index. This indicator shows lower peaks. When this happens it can be a precursor to a fall in prices. And that is what happened.

Does Moving Average still provide support?

We discussed the Moving Average in an earlier price analysis. Again this seems to be relevant.

Moving Average literally means moving average, and that is exactly what it is. A Moving Average (MA) looks at the average price of a certain period. For example, a 200-day MA displays the average rate for the past 200 days.

On the graph below, the 200MA is shown on the four-hour graph. The line below therefore shows the average of two hundred units of time of four hours.

The course always seems to find support on this line. This has been the case since February 2019. So it looks like a kind of dynamic trend line. Does the course now also find support on this line?

May and June channel again relevant

A channel from May and June now seems to apply again. A channel means that the price moves between two parallel trend lines. This was also the case for a long time.

On June 20 the price of bitcoin broke through this channel. That was the start of the advance towards the 12,000 euros. But bitcoin didn’t last this long, and dropped by 30 percent in a week.

Remarkably, the course looked exactly up the top of the channel. It is possible that the price again looks up, if the decline continues:

What do we expect from the bitcoin rate?

At the time of writing, the bitcoin rate is in a downward trend. However, the course now seems to have found support. You can see this on the graph on the green rectangle.

Where is the bitcoin course going now? As always, we outline two scenarios: positive (bullish) and negative (bearish).

Bullish
Should bitcoin rise, then the old summit on Wednesday 26 June is an important resistance. The exchange rate is probably having a hard time breaking the 12,000 euro level. You can see this zone on the graph on the red rectangle.

Bearish
But is bitcoin falling? Then the price can start looking up at the top of the channel. That is approximately 9,000 euros.