The total capacity of the crypto market can reach $ 10 trillion by 2022

Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen recently posted on youtube a theory on the evolution of the crypto market. Its method is called the logarithmic regression band and refers to the value that the total ceiling of the crypto market reaches after a period of growth.

Cowen shows that, after a bubble disappears, the total capacity of the crypto market reaches a calculable value. For example, at the height of the bubble in 2017-2018, the market cap of the crypto market has come close to $ 1 trillion. However, since then it has returned to the regression band and currently stands at about $ 290 billion.

According to this model, by 2022, the total assessment of the crypto market is estimated to reach 10 trillion dollars. Of course, Cowen acknowledges that this is likely to happen sooner, because it depends on the appearance of the next bubble.

The graph of the difference between the total market cap and the lowest point of the regression band over time shows that peak levels are decreasing with each market cycle. This supports the theory of diminishing returns over time.

“Assuming this behavior continues, we can project a potential peak level over the regression band for the next growth period,”

says Cowen.

The potential result would be a total cryptocurrency market cap of around $ 10 trillion at the top of the next bubble. In this scenario, the market cap is likely to oscillate in the regression band for a while before its ascent begins.

The stock-to-flow model provides a market cap of $ 100 trillion for BTC

Another popular analyst, PlanB, has its own market cap forecasting model. Called stock-to-flow, it predicts that the cap on the Bitcoin market will reach $ 100 trillion. Cowen’s maximum market share of $ 10 trillion for the entire crypto market does not sound that impressive.

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Of course, a Bitcoin market cap of $ 100 trillion is forecast sometime in 2028. The projected increase in price in the S2F model is due to the artificial limitation of supply over time. So, Bitcoin will have to go through two reward halves to reach this cap.

Therefore, the total capacity of the $ 10 trillion crypto market by 2022 is a somewhat closer target.

At current levels of Bitcoin dominance, a total market capacity of $ 10 trillion means a BTC price over $ 330,000.