BTC price holds up against weak stock market

Bitcoin (BTC): The bulls still won’t give up

BTC-Kurs: 19.285 USD

Short-term resistances/goals: 19.568 USD, 19.881 USD, 20.185 USD, 20.478 USD, 20.779 USD, 21.029/21.177 USD, 21.691/21.892 USD, 22.130 USD, 22.435 USD, 22.834 USD

Short-term supports: 19.249 USD, 18.950 USD, 18.683 USD, 18.159 USD, 17.909/17.567 USD, 16.180 USD

Market Recap

• Yesterday’s trading day kept what it promised. First of all, the narrowing of the trading range visible in the previous days after the release of the higher than expected US inflation data was, as suspected, resolved with a range breakout.
• In a first reaction, Bitcoin and especially the altcoins rushed south together with the US stock indices. Temporarily, many altcoin courses showed a double-digit price minus. Like a phoenix from the ashes, however, the Bitcoin price then turned north on the dollar in the area of ​​the lows from September.
• Apparently, investors rated the sell-off after the release of the US inflation data at 2:30 p.m. yesterday as excessive.
• Since more than 150 million US dollars in leveraged bets on Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH) and Co. were liquidated within one trading hour, it is not unlikely that the market makers have also helped here.
• Many bullish investors were thus forced out of their trades before the actual price movement to the north started.
• As if by magic, the major share indices then carried out a bullish reversal almost simultaneously from 4:00 p.m., which lasted until the close of trading on Wall Street at 10:00 p.m.
• The intraday trading range of more than five percentage points in the Nasdaq100 technology index once again clearly showed how volatile the financial markets are currently reacting to economic data.
• The crypto key currency Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market joined the recovery in the stock markets and also rose back to new daily highs in the hours that followed.

The positive impression remains

• Looking at the altcoins, Uniswap (UNI) and in particular the outperformer of the last few weeks, Quant (QNT), showed their bullish side.
• Yesterday’s price recovery caused a wide-ranging upward movement during the night from Thursday to Friday, which peaked in the Bitcoin price up to the resistance at USD 19,881.
• Starting from yesterday’s daily low of USD 18,131, the key crypto currency rose by a good 10 percentage points north within 18 trading hours.
• However, on Friday, October 14, the bull camp has not yet managed to take advantage of this promising starting position and heave the Bitcoin price directly back above USD 20,000 in the direction of the upper edge of the range at USD 20,478.
• In view of the renewed price consolidation in the share indices in the last few hours of trading, this is not surprising.
• Although the correlation between Bitcoin and the US stock indices has recently decreased again, without the support of institutional investors from Wall Street, it is still not possible for the BTC price to start north on its own.

Is there a change of heart among investors?

• In the previous weeks, the last trading day of the week on the classic financial market was characterized by profit-taking before the weekend. This trend seems to be continuing on Friday as well.
• Nonetheless, Bitcoin’s outperformance is remarkable given the ongoing economic and political uncertainties.
• While the major US stock indices corrected again yesterday to fresh lows for the year, Bitcoin only retested the lower edge of the range.
• The fact that Bitcoin is coping so well with the persistently negative economic data may be due to the fact that investors are increasingly appreciating the true value of the anti-inflationary asset Bitcoin in view of the capers on the foreign exchange market.
• Although it is still too early to speak of a sustainable turnaround for Bitcoin and Co., the ongoing resistance from the buyer side at the relevant support levels indicates an increasing willingness to invest in the crypto space.
• Another bullish factor is the increasing trading volume on the largest crypto exchange, Binance.com, over the past few weeks of trading. Although this increase is not equally evident on all exchanges, this development is an important bullish indicator and, in the medium term, the basic prerequisite for a sustainable trend reversal on the crypto market.

Two scenarios for the next seven trading days

• First, the buyer side has to recapture the psychologically important $20,000 mark in order to pave the way for further price increases.
• However, a clearer chart brightening for Bitcoin is still only to be expected when it stabilizes above the red resistance zone between USD 20,478 and USD 20,779.
• Only when the bulls manage to break the BTC price above this strong resistance area will the top of the range at USD 22,834 come back into focus as an important price target.
• However, if Bitcoin falls back below the support at USD 19,249 under the pressure of a correcting stock market, there will be another preliminary decision between USD 18,950 and USD 18,683. Once again, Bitcoin should not give up the support at USD 18,683, otherwise the probability of a dip below yesterday’s daily low increases drastically.
• An extension of the correction back towards its low for the year at USD 17,567 would then be increasingly likely.
• This would also increase the chance of a price setback below the previous low for the year towards USD 16,180 in the coming weeks.

Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not represent buy or sell recommendations. They are merely an assessment by the analyst.

The chart images were created using TradingView created.

USD/EUR exchange rate at the time of going to press: EUR 1.03.