Bitcoin (BTC): No price breakout is possible without an increase in trading volume
BTC-Kurs: $21,725 (previous week: $23,400)
Short-term resistances/goals: 21.892/21.721 USD, 22.204 USD, 22.435 USD, 22.834 USD, 23.239 USD, 23.632 USD, 24.291 USD, 24.816 USD, 25.498 USD, 26.170 USD, 26.734 USD, 27.696/28.104 USD, 28.607 USD, 29.256 USD, 29.975 USD, 30.612 USD, 31.750 USD, 32.443/32.938 USD
Short-term supports: 21.373 USD, 20.779 USD, 19.881/20.036 USD, 19.212/18.950 USD, 18.604 USD, 17.909/17.567 USD, 16.180 USD, 14.838 USD, 14.311 USD, 13.858 USD4-hour chart Price analysis based on the pair of values BTC/USD on Coinbase
- After several failed attempts to break out, the price of the key crypto currency recently consolidated significantly and fell back at the top to the important horizontal support at USD 20,779 before the bulls stabilized the price.
- In the last few trading days, the trading range has narrowed significantly, with Bitcoin trading in a range between resistance at $21,892 on the upside and support at $20,779 on the downside.
- As long as the BTC price cannot sustainably break out of this trading range, investors should wait and see which trading direction Bitcoin will take for the time being.
- In addition to the below-average trading volume, profit-taking in the classic stock indices also caused the Bitcoin price to fall.
- In addition, the continued strength of the US dollar is having a price-limiting effect on the key crypto currency.
The professional investors’ money is still on hold
- Institutional investors are currently waiting for possible new impetus from the Jackson Hole Meeting in the USA in the coming days. At this annual meeting, the heads of the major central banks debate the current state of the global economy and possible instruments for reducing persistently high inflation rates with company executives and economic politicians.
- The strength of the US dollar and the resulting problems for the emerging and developing countries should also be a thorn in the side of many participants. Possible adjustments to monetary policy have already been discussed at this important meeting in Jackson Hole in the past.
- On Thursday, August 25th, current figures on gross domestic product in the USA for the second quarter of 2022 could also provide new price impetus.
What are the indicators saying?
- The Fear and Greed Index followed the Bitcoin course and fell back to a value of 25. This relapse indicates increased fear among investors after rising to neutral territory.
- Looking at the RSI and MACD indicators, there is still no clear direction to be seen. While the RSI and MACD indicators both have buy-signals on the 4-hour chart, both indicators on the daily chart still have active sell-signals. In the weekly chart, the MACD still has a long signal. However, a look at the RSI shows that there is still no strong trend in the larger time units.
- Bitcoin’s drop below USD 22,400 is bearish for the time being. However, as long as the BTC price does not break below USD 20,779 at the end of the day, a new attempt to rise by the bull camp can be planned at any time.
- The chart image of Bitcoin only brightens up in the long term when the USD 22,435 is dynamically recaptured. Then the focus should be on the resistance area around USD 23,237 again.
Bullish Scenario (BTC)
- Bitcoin bulls have been falling behind a bit recently. The buyers had nothing to oppose the sale.
- Only at the last low was the BTC price stabilized and thus prevented from falling back below the psychologically important USD 20,000 mark.
- This Wednesday afternoon, the bulls are again trying to break through the upper edge of the trading range of the last few days at USD 21,721 in the course of a friendly stock market in the USA.
- If the buyer camp succeeds in lifting the Bitcoin price above the turquoise resistance area at the end of the day and subsequently recapturing the resist at USD 21,892, a march through to USD 22,204 should be planned.
First directional decision to be expected
- If this price mark is broken, a first short-term directional decision will be made in the area of USD 22,435.
- If this zone can be overcome dynamically, the next relevant resist is waiting at the tear-off edge at USD 22,834. Here, Bitcoin is likely to fail at the first attempt.
- Only when the Bitcoin price stabilizes again above USD 22,834 does the upward movement expand to the cross resistance of the tear-off edge and the higher Fibonacci 38 retracement at USD 23,239.
- The bulls have to prove themselves at the latest at the golden pocket of the last price movement in the area of USD 23,632. A recapture of this resistance makes a walkthrough to $24,291 likely.
- If this resistance level is also broken through without a significant correction, there will be another battle between bulls and bears in the zone around USD 24,816.
Resistance at $24,816 becomes the central price level
- Here is the 23 Fibonacci retracement of the full down move. Any escape attempts have been abruptly halted here in recent weeks.
- However, this price level must be overcome in the long term in order to release further potential for growth.
- If the bulls can generate enough purchasing power and subsequently break through the historical high of USD 25,214, Bitcoin will rise to at least USD 25,498.
- A direct march through to USD 26,170 would also be conceivable.
- However, this can only succeed if the trading volume also increases. Only then can a sustainable trend movement without an abrupt reversal to the south be planned.
Bulls need to confirm the sustainability of the trend move with more bitcoin buying
- A preliminary decision for the coming trading weeks is likely at the latest at the 61 Fibonacci retracement at USD 26,734.
- If the buyer side can stabilize the Bitcoin price above this price level, the orange zone between USD 27,696 and USD 28,104 will become the next relevant target area for investors to focus on.
- The next price target is waiting above the orange zone at USD 28,607.
- This would put the Bitcoin price no further away from the next target area between USD 29,256 and USD 29,975.
- If there is no renewed profit-taking and the bears also hold back, the chance of a march through to the maximum bullish target area between USD 31,750 and USD 32,443 increases noticeably.
- Only when the BTC price can also recapture this area at the daily closing price and is thus again above the EMA200 in the daily chart can higher Bitcoin prices beyond USD 32,938 be planned in the medium term.
Bearish Scenario (BTC):
- The bears once again showed their paws. The sale left an impression, at least in the short term.
- Again, a good USD 300 million in leveraged long positions were liquidated.
- The sell-side must now do everything possible to cap the BTC price below USD 22,439.
- If the seller succeeds in selling the BTC price below USD 20,779 in the coming trading days, this would be a clear indication of a correction extension back towards the blue support zone around USD 19,881.
The gaze should be directed downwards
- If the BTC price does not stabilize here, the downward movement will immediately extend to the last strong support in the yellow support zone at USD 19,000.
- Once again, the buyer side should try to turn the Bitcoin course north here.
- However, should this strong support be broken through for a long time, the chart picture will continue to cloud over and the likelihood of a relapse to the year’s low will increase noticeably.
New annual lows likely
- Bitcoin should then correct with an intermediate stop at USD 18,604 up to USD 17,909. This is the bulls’ last chance to reverse course to the north.
- However, if the bears keep the selling pressure high and the year’s low at USD 17,567 is broken dynamically, a further sell-off up to USD 16,180 is to be expected.
- Looking ahead, an extension of the correction to the support area between USD 14,837 and USD 13,858 is becoming increasingly likely.
Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not represent buy or sell recommendations. They are merely an assessment by the analyst.
The chart images were created using TradingView created.
USD/EUR exchange rate at the time of going to press: EUR 1.00.
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