Postponed hard fork Vasil pushes the course

  • Rate (ADA): $0.53 (previous week: $0.52)
  • Resistances/Goals: 0,60 USD, 0,64/0,68 USD, 0,75 USD, 0,92/0,95 USD, 1,00 USD, 1,04 USD, 1,10 USD, 1,19 USD, 1,25 USD, 1,43 USD, 1,59 USD, 1,82 USD, 1,96 USD, 2,07 USD
  • Supports: 0,53 USD, 0,50 USD, 0,45 USD, 0,39 USD, 0,33 USD, 0,26 USD, 0,19 USD

Price analysis based on the value pair ADA/USD on Bittrex

Cardano Recap:

  • The news about the Cardano update Vasil, which was postponed again, only had a short-term negative effect on the price development of the altcoin, but the ADA price has not yet managed to rise back to its historical highs of USD 0.68.
  • The 23 Fibonacci retracement at USD 0.60 thus continues to act as a strong resistance level for the time being.
  • According to Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson, the hard fork is in the final phase of development, but there is no new date for the changeover.
  • Even the most recent implementation of the stablecoin DJED on the decentralized Cardano exchange WingRiders has not caused a party mood among investors.

What does the chart say?

  • The ADA price is currently trading listlessly within its trading range of the last three months. However, it is positive to note that Cardano has been able to stabilize above the EMA50 (orange) for a week now.
  • The first relevant resistance area on the upside is unchanged between USD 0.64 and USD 0.68. A breakout of this zone activates the make-or-break level at USD 0.75 as the first target. In addition to the 38 Fibonacci retracement of the current price movement, the EMA200 (blue) can also be found in the daily chart.
  • On the downside, the ADA price initially finds good support around USD 0.50. Among other things, the supertrend in the daily chart runs in this area.
  • The indicators also do not show a clear trend. The RSI as well as the MACD indicator both have a slight buy signal, but could quickly turn into a sell signal if the price weakens again.
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Bullish scenario (Cardano):

  • The ADA price recently failed to break through the area around USD 0.60. The bulls’ attempts to rise are repeatedly countered by the sellers. The low trading volume makes a breakout back above USD 0.60 towards the turquoise zone even more difficult.
  • Only when Cardano can establish itself above USD 0.60 will the interim highs from June 2022 between USD 0.64 and USD 0.68 come into focus again.
  • If the bulls manage to stabilize Cardano above this zone by the daily closing price, an attack on the make-or-break area at USD 0.75 should be planned.
  • In the short term, a directional decision can be expected here for the coming weeks.
  • If the buyer side succeeds in lifting the ADA price back above the cross resistance from EMA200 and the old tear-off edge, the chart image will continue to brighten.

The first price target is $1.00

  • Thereafter, Cardano is likely to rise rapidly towards USD 0.92 and target the golden pocket of the current trend movement.
  • Increased resistance from the bear camp is already to be planned in this area.
  • Only when the USD 0.95 is broken through dynamically does the price recovery expand to the psychological USD 1.00. The 23 Fibonacci retracement of the complete downward movement runs just above this at USD 1.04. From a technical point of view, this represents the minimum target of a recovery movement.
  • If Cardano can subsequently get stuck above USD 1.00, investors will set their sights on the price mark of USD 1.10.
  • If there is no significant course correction here either and Cardano is heading further north, the medium-term target range between USD 1.19 and USD 1.25 will be activated. Here Cardano failed several times in 2022. For the time being, this zone is to be regarded as the maximum increase target for the coming trading weeks.
  • Fresh bullish momentum from cryptocurrency Bitcoin (BTC) will be required for ADA price to break out of this strong resistance area.
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More upside possible

  • If the bulls succeed in stabilizing the ADA price above the red resistance area in the coming months, the resistance mark at USD 1.43 will move into the focus of investors. In addition to strong horizontal resistance, the higher-level 38 Fibonacci retracement also runs in this area.
  • If the ADA price also breaks through this resistance level, the next relevant target area awaits between USD 1.52 and USD 1.59. This is also where the high for the year so far is running. Investors may want to take chips off the table again.
  • If the buyer side succeeds in leaving this area behind despite taking profits, a march through to the blue resist zone between USD 1.82 and USD 1.96 is conceivable.
  • This means that the maximum price target that can be derived in the form of the parent Golden Pocket between USD 2.07 and USD 2.15 would also be within reach.

Bearishe Szenario (Cardano):

  • The bears defended the resistance around USD 0.60 very bravely recently. Any attempts by the bulls to break out were negated.
  • As long as the ADA price remains capped below USD 0.68, another sell-off towards the low for the year is conceivable at any time.
  • A first indication of a new price weakness would be a sustained drop below USD 0.50.
  • If the seller succeeds in selling Cardano below this strong support at the daily closing price, the correction will immediately expand to around USD 0.45.
  • If the last interim low is dynamically undercut, a retest of the annual low at USD 0.40 is increasingly likely.
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New annual lows must be planned for

  • The unchanged weak trading volume could mean that the bears could push the ADA price below this area on the next attempt to sell off.
  • Should the USD 0.40 be breached in the event of renewed weakness in the overall market, the lower edge of the green support zone at USD 0.33 will immediately come into focus for investors.
  • The Bulls can be expected to start defending themselves here.
  • If, on the other hand, this support level is also broken through sustainably, the correction will expand directly in the direction of USD 0.26.
  • If the ADA price does not turn northwards in the long term either, a fall back to the area between USD 0.17 and USD 0.19 cannot be ruled out in the medium term.
  • As long as the area around the annual low is not abandoned at the daily closing price, investors can venture into Cardano. However, a stop loss below the previous low for the year should be set.

Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not represent buy or sell recommendations. They are merely an assessment by the analyst.

The chart images were created using TradingView created.

USD/EUR exchange rate at the time of going to press: EUR 0.98.

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