MOSCOW, 30 Sep — PRIME. The recent decline in oil prices could slow in the fourth quarter of 2022 and into 2023 as market attention shifts from demand concerns to supply concerns. These are the results of a survey conducted by Reuters.
The 42 economists and analysts surveyed by Reuters assume that the average Brent oil price will be $100.45 a barrel this year and $93.70 in 2023. In August, survey participants expected the average price of a barrel of Brent in 2022 and 2023 to be $103.93 and $96.67, respectively. However, forecast prices are higher than current levels.
Brent is now trading at about $90 a barrel, although earlier this year the quotes rose to $120-130 amid Western sanctions against Russia. Prices came under pressure amid a strengthening dollar and expectations of a slowdown in the economy.
UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo believes that recessionary fears will affect prices only in the very short term, but then investors will pay more attention to supply problems.
“The EU ban on offshore supplies of oil and oil products from Russia is likely to lead to interruptions in production in the Russian Federation. In addition, the supply on the market will decrease even more after the end of the program for the sale of oil from the US strategic reserves,” the expert emphasized.