MOSCOW, 14 Sep — PRIME. The International Energy Agency (IEA) believes that oil and condensate production in Russia in August decreased by 170,000 barrels per day, to 10.96 million barrels per day, and is waiting for a further decline by the end of 2022, follows from the report of the agency.
“Production in Russia fell in August, showing the first monthly decline since April. Total oil and condensate production fell by 170 thousand barrels per day, to 10.96 million barrels per day,” the IEA writes.
The agency also forecasts a further gradual decline in Russian production from September to November, followed by a larger fall in December, when the EU embargo on Russian oil comes into effect, according to the IEA.
“This will lead to an average production in 2022 of 10.9 million barrels per day, about the level of 2021,” the report says.
By early next year, about 2 million barrels per day of oil production in the Russian Federation is expected to be stopped, which will reduce the total volume to 9.6 million barrels per day, the IEA adds.
At the same time, the agency reported that oil production in the world last month increased by 790,000 barrels per day compared to July, to 101.3 million barrels per day, mainly due to non-OPEC+ countries, growth is observed for the third month in a row.
“OPEC+ output is up 340,000 bpd, with a strong recovery in Libya and smaller gains in Saudi Arabia and the UAE offset by losses in Nigeria, Kazakhstan and Russia, the latter posting their first monthly decline since April. Non-OPEC countries + added 450,000 bpd, led by the United States, Brazil, Norway and Canada.
According to the energy agency, the growth of global oil production in the second half of 2022, from August to December, will slow down significantly. Supply on the world market will increase by only 280,000 barrels per day, to 101.6 million barrels per day. OPEC+ is expected to lead the way if Libya continues to recover, Kazakhstan’s outlook improves and Nigeria recovers from its 40-year lows. As the IEA predicts, Russian production will gradually decrease from almost 11 million barrels per day in August to 10.2 million per day in December due to the embargo.