Media: OPEC + raised the forecast for a surplus of oil in the world market

MOSCOW, 31 Aug – PRIME. The OPEC+ Technical Monitoring Committee, which includes alliance experts, has raised its forecast for a total oversupply in the oil market for the year to 900,000 barrels per day from the previously expected 100,000, Reuters reports citing the report of the committee.

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The OPEC+ Technical Committee expects the oil market surplus to reach 900,000 bpd this year, up from the 100,000 bpd expected in the previous forecast.

In addition, according to the base scenario of the technical committee, in September, the supply surplus in the oil market will amount to 3.1 million barrels per day. It will then fall to 0.6 million bpd in October and rise to 1.4 million in November. In 2023, a surplus in the oil market is also expected to reach 900,000 barrels per day.

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OPEC+ cut oil production by 9.7 million barrels per day in May 2020 due to falling demand for oil caused by the widespread fight against covid. Then the terms of the agreement were repeatedly adjusted. So, since August, the alliance has moved to the final stage of exiting the cuts announced two years ago, and in September it will increase production by 100,000 barrels per day.

Oil production

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The current OPEC+ agreement is valid until the end of the year. At the same time, earlier in August, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said that the alliance would soon begin work on a new oil agreement for the period after 2022. He also noted the discrepancies that exist in the dynamics of the physical and “paper” (exchange) markets, saying that the alliance, as before, has all the necessary leverage to influence volatility, including production cuts.

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OPEC+ ministers are going to discuss the state of the oil market and further parameters of the agreement on Monday, September 5.

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