Bitcoin balance sheet March 2020: the “safe aspect” not demonstrated but the TA remains bullish

The bitcoin price like all the stock market underwent capital outflows in March 2020. The BTC is still too much young for a refuge role but he remains long term bullish.

Key technical factors of the article:

• The bitcoin price did not play its supposed safe haven role during the March stock market shock, capital invested in the futures market and volume are at a very low level.
• Technical analysis continues to defend the long-term underlying bullish trend.

The stock market month of March 2020 therefore enters the list of first-rate market shocks, with a price of the CAC 40 which lost up to 40% in the space of four weeks, a speed of decline more seen since the crash of 1929. It was therefore the ideal month for the price of Bitcoin to be able to demonstrate to the planet that it finances its role as a safe haven, a role that has been supposed for a long time.

However, it was not, worse, capital largely left Bitcoin in March as illustrated by the fall in the open position on BTC options and futures from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). So it's a big disappointment for BTC supporters, but let's be reassured, even the gold price saw strong clearances at the height of the fall in stocks in March.

The stock market quarter and month end tonight, so balance sheet time has arrived. What should be retained from this period for the Bitcoin ?

• The level of volatility reached a record high, surpassing its peaks in 2017 and 2018.
• The trading volume fell to a very low level, both in terms of daily trading and the open position in the Chicago Stock Exchange futures market.
• Despite the fall between $ 10,000 and $ 3,850, the BTC preserves its long-term supports at monthly closing ($ 4,200 / $ 5,000); unless the market collapses by tonight.
• The very long term stock chart (monthly data with a logarithmic scale) still argues in favor of the underlying uptrend.

Below, you can observe the long term chart since the year 2011. The market is building the second major lateral phase since the year 2011 (after that of the years 2014/2015), a trading range which can be an intermediate sequence before a new bull market leading us to exceed $ 20K.

This bullish market view is conditioned by the imperative preservation of the $ 3,100 and especially the exceeding of the extreme resistance at $ 10,000. This year, the market will probably vegetate between these two terminals, unless the halving does not change the situation.

Stock market scenarios are just alternatives and an alternative consists of two branches. So let's nuance with the bearish branch, 3K break which would dive BTC around $ 1200.

BTC / USD in monthly Japanese candles for 10 years

To conclude this technical note, let's take a look at the situation of altcoins whose interest in capital is even more glaring than on BTC. Ethereum (ETH) here will serve as an example with a market a stone's throw from its all-time lows, without for the moment causing buyers to return. As long as altcoins do not enter the outperformance phase against the BTC, the overall technical situation of cryptos will remain tense.

ETH / USD in Japanese daily candles

Follow Vincent Ganne on Trading View for further analysis on the financial markets. The technical thresholds and the trend indicated above are based on the technical approach "price, momentum, sentiment, ichimoku". The data come from Bitstamp and the graphics of TradingView. You can consult the history of our technical points on cryptocurrencies in click here.

This content is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation. We remind you that theinvestment in crypto assets, including Bitcoin, is extremely risky. Cryptocurrency prices are prone to large and unpredictable price swings