Today is November 15, a special day. On November 15, 1969, 250,000 Americans protested against the Vietnam War. And on November 15, 2015, Arnhem station was officially reopened. Last year on this day, Craig Wright hurled this tweet into the world:
In his words, bitcoin and litecoin are now dead, they are no longer useful.
How different it looks now, bitcoin is stronger than ever and Craig Wright’s Twitter account no longer exists. We look back in honor of this beautiful tweet. What did November 2018 look like? And what has changed since then?
Falling wedge still in effect
But first a brief recap of the past few days. The price of bitcoin is still moving in a falling wedge.
And although the price is now going down, that is a positive sign. A falling wedge is a bullish continuation pattern. In most cases this formation leads to a price rise.
The graph below shows that it doesn’t take long before the lines come together. When does bitcoin break out?
Then: bitcoin collapses
On November 14, 2018, the price of bitcoin collapsed. Between 9:00 am and 5:00 pm, exactly the time of a working day, the rate fell by more than 830 euros. That is a move of almost 15 percent! And that was shocking, because the price of bitcoin was very stable for a month. Where did it go wrong? We first look at the technical analysis and then dive into the news from then.
For months, $ 6,000 (5,440 euros) seemed an unbreakable support. But on November 14 it went wrong. And it went fast. In total, the bitcoin rate has fallen by almost 50 percent. A month later, the lowest value was achieved. Bitcoin was then only worth 2,770 euros.
When a course falls through strong support, it is often accompanied by a lot of violence. You can see that clearly on the graph. The rate sometimes goes almost straight down:
But you cannot see the price fall separately from last year’s sentiment. There was a lot of uncertainty.
For example, there was disagreement within Bitcoin Cash. Chiefs Roger Ver and Craig Wright disagreed about the plans for the cryptomint, and on November 15 Bitcoin SV split off from Bitcoin Cash. Rumor has it that mining giant Bitmain used part of the Bitcoin mining equipment to mine Bitcoin Cash. These rumors and uncertainty also hit back on the bitcoin rate.
And speaking of minen, since November 2017, many miners have stopped mining bitcoin. That had to do with the falling price of bitcoin, but also with the rising price of electricity. Many miners also had outdated equipment, and could no longer make a profit with it.
And then of course there were the Bitcoin ETFs. A Bitcoin ETF is an investment instrument for institutional investors. Many investors had expected the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to accept a Bitcoin ETF proposal. And that had to give the bitcoin price a move. But it didn’t happen, the SEC delayed every decision. This also caused uncertainty on the market.
Now: bitcoin is coming up steam
How different it looks for bitcoin a year later. Since February 2019, the bitcoin rate has picked up again. Three weeks ago, the rate rose by forty percent in one day.
The positive trend is clearly reflected when you take the 50-day Moving Average. Since March this line offers strong support for the race. The price hardly falls below. For a moment the shock was good, at the end of November the rate plummeted. But now the road to recovery seems to be back on track:
Sentiment is also a lot more positive than it was around this time last year. Bitcoin future platform Bakkt was initially unable to live up to expectations, but is now slowly gaining steam. From December 9, investors can also trade in bitcoin options. There are more and more ways to invest in bitcoin, the market is becoming more mature.
Positive sounds from China also increase confidence in bitcoin and cryptocurrency. Another striking trend is that more and more large parties such as Facebook and central banks want to issue their own digital currency.
Finally, something special. The bitcoin block halving is a well-known concept among the hard crypto community. But the effect and influence of the halving is now also starting to seep into the mainstream media. Does this cause a new influx in investments in bitcoin?
A year after Craig Wright’s tweet, it all looks a lot brighter for bitcoin. We are in a rising trend again, and the bull market has returned. What do you expect from November 15, 2020?
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