The average exchange price of gas in Europe fell by 14.6 percent in September

MOSCOW, 1 Oct — PRIME. The average settlement price of the nearest gas futures in Europe, after four months of steady growth, began to decrease: in September it fell by 14.6%, to about $2,093 per thousand cubic meters, follows from RIA Novosti calculations based on data from the London ICE exchange.

Among the reasons for the decline, experts interviewed by the agency name the filling of gas storage facilities in the European Union to the target level.

“At the moment, we do not see peak values ​​for the price of gas due to the fact that Europe has managed to fill gas storage facilities by more than 80%. There are also intensive discussions about limiting gas prices in the EU,” says personal broker BCS World of Investments Mikhail Seleznev.

PRICE VOLATILITY

Gas prices continued to show volatility in September. They reached peak values ​​at the beginning of the month – above $2,900 per thousand cubic meters, and fell to their minimum levels – below $1,800 – in mid-September. The month ended at almost $1,900 per thousand cubic meters.

The average settlement price of the nearest futures on the TTF hub index in the Netherlands fell to $2,093 in September (-14.6%). For comparison: in May, the figure was $1,030, in June it was almost $1,180 (+14.6% on a monthly basis), and in July it was about $1,805 (+53%). In August, the price slightly exceeded $2,450 (+35.7%), which was a record in the history of gas hubs in Europe since 1996.

The European Commission in its latest report on the gas market (for the first quarter) noted that price volatility in the European gas markets was exacerbated by geopolitical tensions that had already been felt in previous months and created uncertainty regarding the European security of gas supplies.

Prices March 7 reached a historic high of 3892 dollars per thousand cubic meters. Since then, as noted by the European Commission, the market has been mainly determined by statements that affected the availability of gas supplies from Russia, as well as by political measures of the European Union.

NEW MAXIMUMS

In the current situation, experts expect a resumption of price growth in Europe – according to Seleznev, they “are quite capable of updating recent highs.”

The expert notes that this may happen due to a stop in transit through Ukraine, severe frosts or the inability of the United States to significantly increase LNG supplies to Europe this winter.

Exchange trading in gas “is largely based on expectations,” says Maria Belova, director of research at Vygon Consulting.

“The beginning of March was characterized by a high level of uncertainty, including in relation to Russian gas supplies to Europe, hence the panic that led to a surge in prices. Now the negative scenario has already largely materialized (primarily, we are talking about Nord Streams), the storage facilities are full “, she argues.

In mid-August, after prices on spot exchanges reached $2,500 per 1,000 cubic meters, Gazprom reported that, according to its conservative estimates, if the trend continues, prices will exceed $4,000 in winter.

There are no reasons to revise Gazprom’s forecast downwards, Belova is sure. Moreover, according to her, the shutdown of Nord Stream deprives Europe of flexibility in matters of importing “blue fuel”. Prices will move up if there is a physical shortage of gas, she believes.