Bitcoin and Cryptos: 2019 assessment and first projection on 2020

The course of Bitcoin has appreciated by more than 87% this year 2019, a relative performance down from the 240% posted last June. Let’s take stock of 2019 and a first forecast scholarship over the year 2020.

Key technical factors of the article:

  • Top-ranked cryptos by market capitalization : relative performance hierarchy for 2019 and first forecast attempt for next year.
  • Bitcoin price (BTC / USD) : immediate technical point as a six-month contract expires today on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME).

2019 results in% of the top 5 cryptos by market capitalization

2019 is generally a year of upward recovery for crypto-currencies major, with a relative performance which was impressive at the end of the first half, before experiencing a gradual erosion which nevertheless leaves a gross relative gain of more than 87% for BTC / USD. The BTC / EUR performance is more than 90% due to the evolution of the Euro-Dollar exchange rate, an almost neutral monetary factor due to the exchange war between the European Central Bank and the United States Federal Reserve.

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The stock market year ending next Tuesday is therefore clearly cut in half for the top 5 cryptos according to the market capitalization criterion. The graph above is made with the dynamic comparison tool of TradingView and allows to juxtapose the relative variation since January 1, 2019 of the prices of Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Tether and litecoin.

The BTC / USD, leader by far in terms of market capitalization, gained 240% at the height of its Year-To-Date performance established last June, when the market reached $ 13,900. At the time of the annual review, the 87% performance is very honorable compared to the 28.5% of the CAC 40 or even the 17% of the gold ounce.

In the highlights of the top 5, I note the pioneering role of the litecoin for the first half of 2019, the LTC / USD peaked at more than 360% before ending the year at less than 30% appreciation. For the XRPis the disappointment of the year with the virtual absence of a bullish rally even in the first 6 months of the year.

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In order to consider the year 2020, it is finally interesting that the price of Bitcoin has retraced more than two thirds of the increase built between $ 3,100 and $ 13,900. 2019 does not end like 2017, in the form of a bullish excess, of a bubble that would have been strongly deflated next year.

On the contrary, the market returned to an attractive price with a year 2019 which confirmed the growing attractiveness of institutional for cryptos. Funds under management and futures contracts are increasing on this asset class and the trading volume is increasing continuously as on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). This Friday, December 27 sees a six-month expiration for the CME contract, with a new contract proposed Monday 30. This can create volatility today.

Finally, on a technical level, the bitcoin price bounced twice on support at $ 6500 but has not (yet?) validated a double bottom. At this stage, it remains a trading range around the 2019 chartist uptrend line.

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Follow Vincent Ganne on Trading View for further analysis on the financial markets.

The technical thresholds and the trend indicated above are based on the technical approach “price, momentum, sentiment, ichimoku”. The data come from Bitstamp and the graphics of TradingView.

We remind you that theinvestment in crypto assets, including Bitcoin, is extremely risky. Cryptocurrency prices are likely to suffer significant andunpredictable price fluctuations.