CoinDesk analyst Omkar Godbole drew attention to the fact that Bitcoin for the first time since June surpassed gold in terms of growth.
In October, the first cryptocurrency grew by 10.26%, while gold showed a positive trend by only 2.74%. At the same time, the Bitcoin price has been falling in price for the previous three months, and gold has had the strongest drop since June 2018 in September this year – by 3.17%.
From February to June of the current year, all monthly candles on the Bitcoin chart were painted green. This is the longest growth series since August 2017. Meanwhile, gold decreased in February, March and April, and grew in May by 1.7% and in June by 7.9%. Bitcoin in the reporting period gained 62% and 25.89%, respectively.
The analyst believes that Bitcoin has prospects to circumvent gold in November amid optimism about the negotiations between China and the United States, which could negatively affect the price of the precious metal. Historically, November was a good month for the first cryptocurrency – it grew in six cases out of eight.
The positive halving of the block reward, which will happen in May 2020, can be safely considered a positive factor. In the past, bitcoin demonstrated strength about six months before the event. In November 2012, the reward for the mined block was reduced from 50 BTC to 25 BTC, and the rate rose from $ 5 to $ 16 by mid-August. A similar situation was observed before the second “halving” – bitcoin grew from $ 360 to $ 780 by June 2016, while the reward declined in August.
Based on the facts mentioned above, the analyst suggests that bitcoin could rise in November and overcome local highs by $ 10,350, and then $ 13,880, over the next months.
According to Coinmarketcap, currently Bitcoin is trading around $ 9,500. The rapid growth at the end of last month was accompanied by increased trading volumes, which reached maximum levels since February 2018. Then, a rollback was observed against the background of reduced volumes, which may indicate its weakness. The 200-day moving average is still a strong level and holds back further downward movement since October 30 (chart from top left). If a breakdown occurs, the bullish scenario will significantly weaken.
The analyst also noted that Bitcoin could not stay above the five-month moving average (chart on the right) at the weekend, and this was necessary to realize further growth.