Bitcoin: the market needs more liquidity to free itself from the $ 10,200

The uptrend of Bitcoin (BTC) slows after two months of bullish reversal, with a Classes faced with a strong technical resistance and one lack of volume.

Key technical factors of the article:

• After more than 50% increase between mid-December to today, the upward trend is slowing in the bitcoin price, faced with strong technical resistance at $ 10,000 / $ 10,200.
• In order to get rid of this major technical resistance, the market needs more volume on the BTC classic and the Bitcoin future contract.

Between the low point established on December 18 and the highest reached at $ 10,200 on Sunday February 09, the bitcoin price increased by more than 50%, a more visible performance over seven weeks since spring 2019.

We saw in a previous post that the bullish reversal of the bitcoin price had followed all the usual stages of the trend reversal, a reversal confirmed by that of the leading altcoins.

However, it looks like the recovery has been weakening since the start of the week and a shadow hangs over the overall picture of the rebound. As shown in the first graphic below, the return of the short-term decline is due to the impact of a long-term technical level, i.e. resistance noted on a long-term chart (monthly Japanese candles and logarithmic scale).

The $ 10,000 / $ 10,200 represents a resilient technical threshold of very high range, beyond the simple "round" figure of $ 10,000 which caused a lot of ink to flow.

Several technical indicators highlight the strength of the resistance at $ 10K / 10.2K $, in particular the ichimoku with a market that is testing its very long term border between rising and falling. This is the conjunction of the Kijun-sen and the Kumo-span in monthly data to go into technical details, the same one that blocked the rebound to $ 14,000 last June.

As for the shadow that hangs over the general picture of recovery, it is as follows: the lack of volume. This lack is felt in the classic Bitcoin market and that of the future Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) BTC contract.

The second graph of this article, below, gives two pieces of information:

• The first is that of the classic exchange volume, in the form of a histogram and we can see visually that the level of trade is barely 50% of that of the increase between last March and June.
• The second information is that coming from the Bitcoin future contract with a net balance of institutional trading positions (the figures go back to Tuesday, February 04 last and do not include the data of the increase between $ 9,000 and $ 10,200; be careful not to over-interpret) who remains seller.

Bitcoin daily chart

In order to overcome the major technical resistance described in the introduction, the market needs more liquidity.

My subjective point of view is that this missing liquidity will soon be present and that it will make it possible to cross the $ 10K for good. In the meantime, the price of Bitcoin could retrace towards support at $ 9500 (€ 8600), before rebounding.

Follow Vincent Ganne on Trading View for further analysis on the financial markets. You can consult the history of our technical points on cryptocurrencies in click here.

The technical thresholds and the trend indicated above are based on the technical approach "price, momentum, sentiment, ichimoku". The data come from Bitstamp and the graphics of TradingView.

This content is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute an investment recommendation. We remind you that theinvestment in crypto assets, including Bitcoin, is extremely risky. Cryptocurrency prices are susceptible to large and unpredictable price movements.