MOSCOW, 5 Oct – PRIME. The situation on the world oil market is developing in such a way that the cost of oil will remain at an elevated level: Brent – at about $ 100 per barrel, and Russian Urals – $ 70, Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the analytical department of Zenit Bank, believes.
“The current oil market conditions are in favor of holding relatively high prices – up to $100 per barrel of Brent, which may correspond to $70 per barrel of Urals oil,” RIA Novosti’s interlocutor predicts.
According to RIA Novosti, the discount for Russian oil in September was about $20 per barrel. And its average price, according to the Ministry of Finance, fell to $68.3 per barrel. At the same time, the Zenit bank expert did not rule out that the discount for Urals to Brent could increase, although it is still far from the maximum values this year.
In his opinion, the main factor influencing oil quotes now is the situation around Russian oil: the introduction of another package of EU sanctions, which implies a gradual abandonment of it and the possible establishment of a price ceiling. “This introduces a significant imbalance in the oil market, keeping the price of a barrel high,” the analyst said.
Among other factors, he highlighted the negative news regarding the Iranian nuclear deal, which also fuels oil prices.
“The lack of progress is depriving the world market of a significant amount of supply at a time when OPEC + is preparing to reduce production volumes … Even taking into account the risks of a recession in the main consumer economies, the deficit in the oil market is likely to continue,” Evstifeev explained.
Significant pressure is also noted from the strengthening dollar, which makes oil less affordable for a number of consumers from developing countries, the agency’s source said. But the dollar has already passed a significant part of the way to strengthen and is unlikely to continue to grow at such a pace.